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Tender rejections are becoming harder to ignore. In some lanes, they are showing up more often and creating ripple effects across coverage, pricing, and planning. For teams managing freight through annual RFP cycles and routing guides, those ripples can quickly turn into real execution challenges.
While rejection rates can fluctuate by region and season, the recent increase across parts of the market is a signal worth paying attention to.
Tender rejections reflect how willing carriers are to accept contracted freight. When rejection rates are low, capacity (the amount of available trucks in the market) is widely available and contract freight is easy to cover. When they rise, carriers have more leverage and are more selective about the loads they take.
Through much of 2024, national rejection rates stayed relatively low. By late 2024 and early 2025, certain regions began tightening. The Southeast, in particular, saw rejection rates climb into the double digits at times, even while other markets remained more stable. That kind of regional imbalance is often where problems surface first, especially for networks managed through static contracts.
Pricing is the primary driver. When contract rates fall behind the spot market, carriers have little incentive to accept tenders that limit their earning potential. As spot opportunities improve, rejection rates tend to rise, pushing more freight toward spot freight coverage when contracts fail.
Capacity constraints also play a role. Even when demand is steady, fewer available trucks mean less flexibility. Weather events, seasonal surges, and network disruptions can all limit coverage and increase fallout.
There is also a structural shift underway. After an extended period of oversupply, many carriers exited the market in 2023 and 2024. As capacity continues to normalize, rejection rates are more responsive to changes in demand, even modest ones.
Execution details matter as well. Short lead times, inconsistent volumes, and rigid pickup windows all increase the likelihood that a tender gets declined, especially in tighter lanes where carriers have alternatives.
The most effective step is keeping contract rates aligned with current market conditions. When contracts lag behind reality, tender rejections are difficult to avoid. Smaller, more frequent adjustments can help prevent larger disruptions later, especially for shippers relying heavily on annual RFPs.
This is why some shippers are supplementing their annual RFP with targeted mini bids throughout the year. In the Evergreen Freight Model, the annual event sets the foundation, while mini bids are used to refresh specific lanes as market conditions change. Keeping parts of the network current helps reduce fallout and keeps more freight moving on contract instead of spilling into spot freight. If you want a deeper look at this approach, you can read more here.
Carrier relationships continue to matter. Consistency, transparency, and operational reliability make freight easier to prioritize when capacity tightens. Predictable volume and clear communication go a long way.
Visibility is another advantage. Monitoring rejection trends by region and lane helps teams respond before issues escalate. This is where modern logistics software play an important role by surfacing lane-level signals that national averages often hide.
Routing guide discipline is also important. Fewer committed partners often perform better than long lists of backups that rarely execute. Strong primary coverage reduces the need to rely on last-minute alternatives.
Finally, flexibility helps absorb volatility. Earlier tenders, more realistic pickup windows, and proactive planning around seasonal shifts all reduce friction when capacity tightens.
Tender rejections will continue to fluctuate. The teams that manage them best are the ones that treat them as an early signal, not a surprise.
